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Cholera Peaks ?????

AlMac99's picture

via e-mail to HEAS

in Peacekeepers 'brought cholera to Haiti', Sunday, 21 November 2010

"...The disease is expected to peak between 26 and 29 November in the northern slum areas of Cité Soleil, where the disease entered the capital three weeks ago, according to MSF epidemiologists...."

the subsequent text talks about seeing the "first peaks" of cholera within the next ten days, but the graphs in the last two PAHO/U.N. cluster bulletins seemed to show two mortality peaks already.

what is the customary curve over say a year's cholera?  waves?  plateau?  and how would it be affected by applying increments of medical response, both quantitatively (e.g. personnel on duty, supplies in storage, Haitian civil society engagement, etc.) and qualitatively (education, leadership, movement-making, etc.)?

we ought to be able derive curves for Haiti, given a range of Quant and Qual response variables.  then donors could know what they'll get for their money, and Haitians could know whether to be optimistic or pessimistic.

thank you,

Stuart Leiderman

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Kilian. Cholera in Haiti: A very steep learning curve. November 20, 2010
in H5N1 - News and Resources about Influenza, Infectious Diseases and Public Health

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